Notable Bets: Why a Las Vegas Professional Guess Huge to Win a Little at Purdue

David PurdumESPN Employees Writer9:00 AM ET6 Minute Learn

The Purdue Boilermakers misplaced to the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights as a 23.5 level favourite. Andy Lyons/Getty Pictures

Steve Fezzik, a longtime professional bettor in Las Vegas, admits he wagered closely – presumably over $100,000 – for an opportunity to win only a few thousand {dollars} at closely favored Purdue to beat Fairleigh Dickinson on Friday within the opening spherical to beat the NCAA match.

For Fezzik it was “easy logic”. The highest-seeded, absolutely motivated Boilermakers had been 23.5-point favorites in opposition to an undersized 16-seed in Fairleigh Dickinson. Fezzik believed Purdue had a greater than 99% likelihood of successful the sport, whereas the moneyline odds supplied on Boilermakers mirrored a barely decrease likelihood, someplace round 98.1%. Regardless of betting huge to win little, he felt he had an edge.

He introduced his intentions on Friday morning Twitter: “I’m attempting to resolve how a lot to put money into Purdue – 4500 moneyline. 99% plus stake. Good worth,” he tweeted forward of the sport.

His subsequent tweet can be a mea culpa after Fairleigh Dickinson surprised the Boilermakers on Friday to turn into the second 16 seed to ever defeat a No. 1 seed. It was the largest upset of the match for the reason that discipline grew to 64 groups in 1985, and Fezzik misplaced two huge bets on it.

“Sorry to everybody. Personally, I guess on Purdue Moneyline and that was actually a troublesome query,” he stated Posted Friday evening after the FDU fuss. “I apologize for sharing this and for everybody who adopted my tweet after calling it an excellent guess.”

In a direct message alternate on Twitter Sunday, Fezzik stated he guess $40,000 on the Boilermakers on the cash line at odds of -5,200 on the Las Vegas Sportsbook Circa, a guess that may have paid out round $800 web. He added that he guess much more on the Purdue moneyline elsewhere at odds of -4,500.

A $60,000 guess at -4,500 odds would have gained simply over $1,300. Fezzik didn’t specify the scale of his second huge guess on the Boilermakers, however with the quantities estimated above, he could have wagered $100,000 to win about $2,100.

A veteran bettor, Fezzik is the one individual to have gained the NFL’s prestigious handicap competitors, the SuperContest, in consecutive years. With curly brown hair and glasses, he’s been operating round Las Vegas attempting to hit the books for many years, and he claims to have amassed greater than $1 million in winnings from handicap contests. He’s additionally a polarizing determine within the betting neighborhood, largely attributable to his work as a recruiter promoting picks.

Fezzik says he didn’t give his shoppers a Purdue line of cash and appeared to really feel worse for not together with a disclaimer when he launched his plans to place the excessive worth on the Boilermakers than he did concerning the precise losses.

“I used to be fairly irresponsible when … I tweeted it to not warn folks to not guess a big proportion of their bankroll as a result of clearly bets like this are by no means 100% blocked,” Fezzik stated. “Nobody ought to let a guess like that break their match.”

He additionally described himself as lazy and complained that he hadn’t shopped extra within the betting market to search out the most effective moneyline worth for the Boilermakers supplied at sportsbook.

Fezzik stated he watched the sport intently and positioned a number of dwell bets on Fairleigh Dickinson to chop his losses. “I nonetheless bathed my preflop bets however mitigated the harm with lively administration,” he stated.

After it was throughout, Fezzik stated he misplaced “about 20,000 within the sport” however remained undeterred and plans to guess huge within the coming weeks to realize a little bit in opposition to one other lengthy shot.

“I’ll proceed to guess on the favorites with 20+ factors within the match, however I will probably be far more lively to get the most effective worth,” he stated. “Additionally, I plan to guess on tigers [Woods] gonna lose the masters, -6,000-ish. No approach he wins 1% of the time.

“Properly, if that loses, they will put me within the Sports activities Betting Corridor of Disgrace.”

Notable bets from March Insanity

• The favorites went 24-23-1 in opposition to the unfold within the first two rounds of the match, falling 32 of 48 video games below the full.

In keeping with ESPN Stats & Data, there have been 16 whole upsets to complete seventh in an NCAA match for the reason that discipline expanded to 64 groups in 1985.

The combo of favorites and underdogs protecting the unfold, the abundance of huge surprises and the quantity of video games falling wanting the full all resulted in general constructive outcomes for some sportsbooks.

“I’d name it a stable weekend,” SuperBook chief government John Murray stated Sunday evening as the ultimate video games drew to an in depth. “We’ll emerge from the 4 days as stable winners throughout the board, however how a lot of a winner is relies upon loads on tonight’s Gonzaga sport in opposition to TCU. We received a number of parlays for the Bulldogs on the cash line. If TCU sparks the thrill, Saturday and Sunday might solely be classed as nice days.

TCU didn’t defeat the favourite Bulldogs, however the Horned Frogs did give bettors one thing to recollect.

TCU ran the quilt play right here https://t.co/ktpKW2Bavd

– Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) March 20, 2023

Gonzaga, who completed as a 4.5-point favourite, hit two free throws to take a six-point lead with 0.7 seconds left. TCU introduced within the ball and made it bounce midway earlier than touching it to save lots of time. TCU’s Damion Baugh picked up the ball and launched a 3-pointer that whizzed after time ran out for the ultimate rating of 84-81, with outsider Horned Frogs protecting the unfold.

• Not all, to make use of Fezzik’s phrases, took the historic pleasure of Fairleigh Dickinson in stride. DraftKings confirmed {that a} buyer who selected to stay nameless positioned a $33,000 in-game guess on Fairleigh Dickinson when the Knights odds had been 15-1 and gained $528,000.

The joy of the FDU gave Caesars Sportsbook its largest lack of any sport within the first two rounds.

“Once you’re speaking about 20-to-1 odds, it doesn’t take some huge cash to construct up a number of legal responsibility, and that’s what occurred,” stated Adam Pullen, deputy industrial director of Caesars Sportsbook. “It was a foul sport for Caesars Sportsbook, nevertheless it was a terrific sport for school basketball.”

• Worst sport of the primary two rounds for the SuperBook was San Diego State, who lined the 5-point unfold in opposition to the School of Charleston on Thursday. 4 down, Charleston was known as up for a foul with a second remaining. A video assessment confirmed there was time on the clock when the foul was dedicated and SDSU sunk each free throws to cowl the unfold.

“It was painful,” Murray stated. “It was a troublesome scene within the threat room watching them lengthen the clock and march to the opposite finish of the ground to take these two free throws to cowl the unfold. Your readers would have sobbed to see our faces as we performed by all of the completely different ending eventualities throughout this fiasco. painful.

• Saturday was the day that harm the betting crowd probably the most, notably the mixed losses of favorites Duke and Kansas. Tennessee defeated Duke in what Murray described as the most effective sport of the match for the SuperBook to this point.

“We had been loaded with Duke cash line and Duke minus factors and we scooped the pot,” Murray stated. “The bookies are wanting actually good if Duke and Kansas lose on the identical day within the opening weekend of the NCAA match.”

• Candy 16 opening strains by way of Caesars Sportsbook:

Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-5.5, 131)
Michigan State Spartans (choose them, 138.5) vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. UConn Huskies (-3.5, 139)
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. UCLA Bruins (-1, 145.5)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Houston Cougars (-7, 138.5)
Xavier Musketeers vs. Texas Longhorns (-4, 148.5)
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5, 138)
Princeton Tigers vs. Creighton Bluejays (-9.5, 140)

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